Frankly Speaking

By Franklin Sone Bayen

President Paul Biya will be on a delicate mission to Bamenda in the coming weeks. Announcing it at the EMIA cadets’ graduation a fortnight ago, Biya did not give a date, though it is obvious it could be on January 1, 2010. He said he would be chairing Cameroon Armed Forces Day 50th anniversary ceremonies there.

Armed Forces Day being January 1, your guess can only be as good as mine that the president will be upcountry on that date. Many observers however prefer to play safe on the specific date. The significance of January 1 (1960-2010) – forget about New Year’s Day – should be ringing a bell in some minds already. Nevertheless, even if that visit were not on January 1, it will be a show of strength of some sort.

He will certainly not say “me voici donc à Bamenda” (here I am in Bamenda after all). He has been to Bamenda at worse times than these. His last trip there was on his nationwide tour in the burning early-90s when he was both jeered and boycotted by the Fru Ndi madding crowd. He also found the ceremonial grounds fixed to receive him unfixed on the eve of his arrival with human waste better not named here.

Biya will certainly be speaking to a less hostile audience this time, perhaps even friendly and he will be delighted at the huge turnout, both genuine and made up. Simon Nkwenti, the Bamenda maestro of “real politick” is by now at work. North West elite have a prime minister – even if no ring road – to show the masses that Biya is turning back to them and cajole them to make the old man feel once again like Bamenda was his second home.

Noted stubborn goats notwithstanding, skepticism that may have been generated by questions over Fru Ndi’s politics, would have bred some lambs to be led to embellish Biya’s Bamenda show.

That show, if it succeeds, could become Biya’s “launch of campaigns” for early elections in 2010, which many suspect he might do to benefit from popular excitement over 2010 Nations Cup and World Cup participation and also to ambush his opponents and perhaps ELECAM.

Biya’s first veiled message to Bamenda on Armed Forces Day, and 50th anniversary at that, will be a show of unreserved military might. The parade will bring out the best of the military in terms of personnel, combat equipment and even tactics. BIR, the rapid intersquad, “Biya’s personal army”, will have a field day.

That display will not be to scare Nigeria out of Bakassi nor Chadian rebels from encroaching in the North. Biya will use as a deterrent against those planning to foment trouble in view of 2011 or late 2010 that if they are spoiling for a fight with the Lion they should mind he consequences.

And having the Banjul Verdict in mind, Biya, the Commander-in-Chief, will direct the parade to remind the Bamenda man and his friends elsewhere that Cameroon is and shall remain one and indivisible, by love of country or through military intimidation and repression.

Jan. 1, La Republique Independence

And if Biya’s visit were to be on January 1, it would be taken in Bamenda as outright provocation. January 1 is Independence Day for former French East Cameroon. British Southern Cameroon only obtained its own on October 1, 1961.

By his noted political shrewdness, former President Ahidjo succeeded to downplay the two independence days, to avoid duplicity and consequent reminder of historical differences. He highlighted 20th May that, in spite of its vexing flaws, could pass for day of harmony. But here goes Biya with January 1, adding insult to injury after removing “United” from Cameroon’s official name in 1984. By that, separatist activists say, “La Republique du Cameroun” seceded.

Cameroon Armed Forces Day as celebrated so far, is of course a celebration of the day when at its independence on January 1, 1960, the French Cameroon army hoisted their national flag. The flag they hoisted that day was not the green-red-yellow with two yellow stars on the green stripe (the Federal Republic flag), let alone the present one, that concern English-speaking Cameroonians somehow. So the flag that should have been 50 years old on January 1, 2010 is a flag that, if presented to the Bamenda population, will look as foreign as that of Sao Tome and Principe.

The ultra-sensitive Bamenda population, now reminded of that fact, will therefore take it as another provocation from Biya over belonging to the nation. That Biya provocation and the recent Banjul reassurance will give ammunition and swell the battle-cry of pro-independence activists.

Biya’s announced Bamenda outing will be ill-advised.